Shit Storm

Posted on 3 November 2021 by Madgett

Surely the actions of our water companies give us all a clue over what capitalism is actually about. It’s profit at any cost once Johnson gave the water companies the green light they literally turned the shit storm on. As one example in Sussex Southern Water dumped sewage in 57 locations along the south coast including Worthing and Hastings within 24 hours of Johnson’s announcement, there wasn’t a moments thought for the environmental damage.

At the end of the day, we can have a planet to live on or capitalism but not both.

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Quitting Social Media

Posted on 28 October 2021 by Madgett

I’ve been here before, how many posts have I started with those words? I’m again thinking of quitting social media, recent revelations by Frances Haugen only confirm my opinion of Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, and the others fare no better. My preferred platform Twitter admits its algorithms are biased and prompt rightwing politicians and news outlets.

I’m not going to go cold turkey as I’ve tried before, firstly I’m going to disable the push notifications on my phone, then uninstall the apps from my phone and then look at my MacBook, so it’ll be sometime before I’m gone and I might remain with perhaps a weekly look, that’s the plan anyway. I’ll see how I go.

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Jeff Bezos’ Space Flight

Posted on 26 October 2021 by Madgett
Jeff Bezos $5.5bn

Taken from the New Internationalist

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Would a Progressive Alliance Defeat the Tories

Posted on 11 September 2021 by Madgett

There’s a lot of talk about a progressive alliance and its ability to defeat the Conservatives, well at least in my timelines, so I decided to take the last election results and see if there’s actually any truth in such an assertion.

There are 650 seats, of which the Conservatives have 363, Labour 199, SNP 45 and the Liberal Democrats 12 with the remaining 31 seats shared amongst a smattering of minor parties except for one seat which is reserved for the speaker currently the Chorley constituency which the major parties don’t contest so if you live in Chorley you’re effectively disenfranchised.

But as far as voting in Parliament is concerned the make up is a little different the Speaker Lindsay Hoyle formerly a labour MP but now an independent and his three deputies,  Eleanor Lang (Conservative), Rosie Winterton (Labour) and  Nigel Evans  (Conservative) don’t vote.  This means the Tories have two less actual votes and Labour one less.

Added to those non-voting MPs is the seven Sinn Féin’s MPs who reject British political institutions and do not take up their seats in the House of Commons.

This brings the total of voting MPs to 639 which means a party needs 320 MPs to have a secure majority. So with 361 voting MPs and 278 voting opposition MPs, the Conservatives have an effective majority of 83.

In tables I-III below I’ve analysed the votes that each of the Progressive Alliance would gain if the coalition parties withdrew and their voters all voted for the remaining party, something I suspect is unlikely but let’s run with it as a best-case scenario and see what happens.  Table I looks at the seats Labour would need to take from the Tories for a majority of just one, Table II looks at the Liberal Democrats top 45 target seats and Table III looks at the SNP target seats. There’s really nothing for Plaid Cymru or the Greens other than the prospect of electoral reform.

As we can see from the tables even in the best case scenario the voting parliament would look like this:

Conservative 307 down from 361, Labour 231 up from 198, SNP 50 up from 45 and Liberal Democrats 28 up from 12. I’ve left the remaining parties unchanged this would mean the opposition voting MPs would total 332 enough to deny the Conservatives a majority.

So a Progressive Alliance could deny the Conservatives a majority, but not command a majority the Conservatives would remain by far the largest party and the Progressive Alliance parties would at best have a total of 312 voting MPs eight short of a majority.

Johnson’s brand of populism has given the Conservatives a commanding majority one that’s going to be difficult to overturn.

TABLE I

Rank Constituency Tory Majority Maximum Tactical Votes for Labour Maximum Tactical Votes for Tories Tory Majority Labour Majority
1 Bury North 105 2,386 1,240 1,041
2 Kensington 150 9,847 384 9,313
3 Bury South 402 4,529 1,672 2,455
4 Bolton North East 378 2,536 1,880 278
5 High Peak 590 3,898 1,177 2,131
6 Gedling 679 3,376 1,820 877
7 Heywood and Middleton 663 3,293 3,952 1,322
8 Blyth Valley 712 3,297 3,394 809
9 Stoke-on-Trent Central 670 1,935 1,691 426
10 Chipping Barnet 1,212 7,220 6,008
11 Delyn 865 3,752 1,971 916
12 Durham North West 1,144 4,004 3,193 333
13 Chingford and Woodford Green 1,262 2,744 1,482
15 Bridgend 1,157 5,196 1,811 2,228
16 Dewsbury 1,561 3,466 1,874 31
17 Warrington South 2,010 5,732 1,635 2,087
18 Clwyd South 1,239 3,633 1,468 926
19 Burnley 1,352 4,240 3,362 474
20 Birmingham Northfield 1,640 2,915 1,909 634
21 Wolverhampton South West 1,661 2,041 1,028 648
22 Leigh 1,965 2,252 3,609 3,322
23 Keighley 2,218 3240 850 172
24 West Bromwich East 1,593 1,940 1,475 1,128
25 Vale of Clwyd 1,827 3,023 1,477 281
26 Ynys Mon* 1,968 10,418 2,184 6,266
27 Peterborough 2,580 3,062 2,127 1,645
28 Derby North 2,540 5,131 1,908 683
29 Stroud 3,840 4,954 1,652 538
30 Wrexham 2,131 4,043 1,222 690
31 Aberconwy 2,034 4,525 2,491
32 Pudsey 3,517 4,826 1,309
33 Vale of Glamorgan 3,562 10,527 1,765 5,200
35 Lincoln 3,514 3,921 1.079 672
36 Hyndburn 2,951 2,071 2,156 3,036
37 Hastings and Rye 4,043 3,960 83
38 Wakefield 3,358 2,590 2,725 3,493
40 Darlington 3,294 3,154 1,544 1,684
41 Watford 4,433 9,323 4,890
42 Hendon 4,230 5,549 1,319
43 Wycombe 4,214 7,997 324 3,459
44 Turo and Falmouth 4,561 9,277 4716
45 Don Valley 3,630 3,602 6,247 6,275
46 Reading West 4,117 5,723 1,606
47 Colne Valley 5,103 5,431 1,498 1,170
48 Southport 4,147 6,499 2,352
49 Redcar 3,527 2,509 2,915 3,933
50 Southampton Itchen 4,498 3,543 472 1,427
52 Stockton South 5,260 2,338 2,196 5,118
53 Broxtowe 5,331 6,474 432 711
55 Calder Valley 5,774 3,605 2,169
56 Milton Keynes North 6,255 6,922 667
57 Workington 4,176 2,121 1,749 3,804
58 Norwich North 4,738 3,741 488 1,485
59 Filton and Bradley Stoke 5,646 6,555 257 652
60 Milton Keynes South 6,944 6,183 207 968
61 Sedgefield 4,513 2,949 3,518 5,082
62 West Bromwich West 3,799 1,579 1,841 4,061
63 Ipswich 5,479 3,722 1,432 3,189
64 Altrincham and Sale West 6,139 8.,056 1,917
65 Blackpool South 3,690 1,571 2,009 4,128
66 Northampton South 4,697 3,704 993
67 Bolsover 5,299 2,517 4,151 6,933
68 Shipley 6,242 5,372 870
71 Wolverhampton North East 4,080 1,563 1,354 3,871
72 Preseli Pembrokeshire 5,062 9,413 906 3,445
73 Barrow and Furness 5,789 2,728 1,355 4,416
74 Rushcliffe 7,643 9,600 591 1,366
75 Cities of London and Westminster+ 3,953 13,925 125 9,847
76 Rother Valley 6,318 3,722 6,264 8,860
77 Swindon South 6,625 4,299 2,326
79 Loughborough 7,169 5,657 1,512
80 Worcester 6,758 5,360 1,398
82 Copeland 5,842 2,653 3,189
83 Pendle 6,186 2,226 3,960
84 Northampton North 5,507 2,984 2,523
85 Morecambe and Lunesdale 6,354 3,266 3,088
86 Worthing East and Shoreham 7,474 6,133 1,341
89 Penistone and Stocksbridge 7,210 5,054 4,300 6,456
90 Ashfield 7,260 1,779 2,501 7,928
91 Uxbridge and Ruislip South 7,210 4,116 283 3,377
93 Stoke-on-Trent North 6,286 1,776 2,374 6,884
94 Crewe and Nantwich 8,508 3,593 1,539 6,454
96 Harrow East 8,170 3,791 4,379
97 Newcastle-under-Lyme 7,446 3,294 1,921 6,073
98 Crawley 8,360 4,179 4,181
99 Clwyd West 6,747 6,144 603
101 Corby 10,268 3,923 6,345
102 Scunthorpe 6,451 1,5645 2,044 6,950
103 Camborne and Redruth 8,700 5,539 3,161
104 Colchester 9,423 8.962 461
105 Bishop Auckland 7,962 2,133 2,500 8,329
106 Bournemouth East 8,806 7,477 1,329
107 Stevenage 8,562 5,589 2,973
108 Bolton West 8,855 3,643 5,212
109 York Outer 9,985 9,992 7
110 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South  7,745 5,493 2,252
113 Shrewsbury and Atcham 11,217 7,668 3,549
114 Gloucester 10,277 5,723 4,554
115 Carlisle 8,319 2,829 1,045 6,535
116 Rossendale and Darwen 9,522 3.204 6,318
117 Finchley and Golders Green ^ 10,815 17,600 6,785
118 Monmouth 9,982 7,444 2,538
119 Macclesfield 10,711 7,994 2,717
121 Scarborough and Whitby 10,270 4,808 5,462
122 Croydon South 12,339 9,285 442 3,496
123 South Ribble 11,199 4,927 6,272
125 Welwyn Hatfield 10,955 8,220 2,735
128 Morley and Outwood 11,267 4,349 6.918
129 Erewash 10,606 3,602 7,004
131 Thanet South 10,587 4,676 5,911
132 Bournemouth West 10,150 7,027 3,123
133 Blackpool North and Cleveleys 8,596 2,229 6,367
134 Great Grimsby 7,331 1,584 2,378 8,125
136 Kingswood 11,220 5,110 6,110
137 Hexham 10,549 6,395 4,154
140 Bromley and Chislehurst 10,891 8,286 255 2,860
142 Thurrock 11,482 2,317 9,165
143 Dover 12,278 4,403 7,875
144 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East 11,626 3,173 8,453
147 Telford 10,941 2,674 8.267
148 Basingstoke 14,198 8,979 5,219
150 Somerset North East 14,729 13,845 884
151 Derbyshire North East 12,876 4,299 8,577
152 Rugby 13,447 5,741 7,696
153 Rochford and Southend East 12,286 3,929 8,357
154 Chelsea and Fulham~ 12,473 12,104 369
155 Banbury 16,813 11,483 5,375
157 Worthing West 14,823 8,032 6.791
158 Wimbeldon± 7,830 19,745 11,915
159 Bassetlaw 14,013 3,332 5,366 16,047
160 Stafford 14,377 5,542 8,835
161 Beckenham 14,258 10,249 4,009

*  Ynys Mon ranked 26 the difference between Labour and Plaid Cymru is just 573 votes so Plaid Cymru stepping aside isn’t quite so clear cut.

+ This seat is incorrectly listed as a target Labour seat the Liberal Democrats actually came second 3,953 short of Tories.

^ Labour came third to Liberal Democrats.

~ Labour came third to Liberal Democrats.

± Labour came third to Liberal Democrats.

This mean that for a majority the Labour party would need to take its 161st target seat

TABLE II

Rank Constituency Tory Majority Maximum Tactical Votes for Lib Dems Maximum Tactical Votes for Tories Tory Majority Lib Dem Majority
2 Wimbeldon 628 12,543 11,915
4 Carshalton and Wallington 629 6,840 1,243 4,968
5 Cheltenham 981 2,921 1,940
6 Winchester 985 2,723 292 1,446
7 Cheadle 2,336 6,851 4,515
8 Cambridgeshire South 2,904 7,803 4,899
9 Esher and Walton 2,743 2,890 147
10 Lewes 2,457 4,659 2,202
11 Guildford 3,337 4,998 4,356 2,695
12 Eastbourne 4,331 3,848 1,530 2,013
13 St Ives 4,280 4,831 551
14 Cities of London and Westminster 3,953 12,453 125 8,375
15 Hazel Grove 4,423 5,508 1,085
16 Hitchin and Harpenden 6,895 10,060 268 2,897
17 Finchley and Golders Green 6,562 13,347 6,785
18 Wokingham 7,383 7,912 529
19 Surrey South West 8,817 4,775 4,342
20 Wells 9,991 4,304 5,687
21 Sutton and Cheam 8,351 8,368 17
22 Harrogate and Knaresborough 9,675 6,688 2,987
24 Cambridgeshire South East 11,490 10,492 998
26 Woking 9,767 10,312 600 55
27 Taunton Deane 11,700 4,715 6,985
28 Wantage 12,653 10,181 2,472
29 Chippenham 11,288 6,399 4,889
31 Mole Valley 12,041 4,839 7,202
32 Romsey and Southampton North 10,872 5,898 640 5,614
33 Dorset West 14,106 7,853 6,253
34 Thornbury and Yate 12,369 4,208 8,161
36 Henley 14,053 8,434 5,619
37 Chelsea and Fulham 11,241 11,372 131
38 Totnes 12,724 8,860 3,864
39 Witney 15,177 8,770 6,407
41 Eastleigh 15,607 9,198 6,409
42 Devon North 14,813 6,856 7,957
43 Newbury 16,047 6,858 9,189
44 Tunbridge  Wells 14,645 8,098 6,547
45 Yeovil 16,181 5,576 10,605

There’s no chance of the Liberal Democrats winning so I went to their 45th target seat which has a similar swing to Labour’s 161st target seat which would give Labour a majority of one.

TABLE III

Rank Constituency Tory  Majority Maximum Tactical Votes for SNP Maximum Tactical Votes  for Tories Tory Majority SNP Majority
2 Moray 513 4,701 413 3,775
3 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 843 8,684 7,841
5 Dumfries and Galloway 1,805 7,878 6,073
7 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 3,781 7,712 3,931
8 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 5,148 6,800 1,652
9 Banff and Buchan 4,118 4,014 104

For seat rankings, I used Election Polling’s battleground target seats which can be found at http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground#Targets.

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Seats Labour Need to Win for a Majority of One

Posted on 20 July 2021 by Madgett

So currently the Parliament is as follows:

Party Seats
Conservative 363
Labour 199
Scottish National Party 45
Liberal Democrat 12
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Sinn Féin 7
Independent 6
Plaid Cymru 3
Alba Party 2
Social Democratic and Labour Party 2
Alliance 1
Green Party 1
Speaker 1

Source: State of the parties

The number of seats needed for a majority is 326, although this varies as Sinn Féin don’t take their seats. Before the next election, there are almost certainly going to be boundary changes so the following table is but an indication of the size of the mountain Labour will need to climb. 

The following table lists 250 seats ranked by the swing needed by Labour to win the seat. Swing is a little complicated to describe here so have a look at Swing (United Kingdom) for an explanation.

Although Labour needs to only win 127 of these seats for a majority of one examination of the top 127 ranked seats shows the majority of seats are held by the Tories however 19 of those seats are held by the SNP and one by Plaid Cymru, it’s difficult enough for Labour to make any Tory gains and nigh impossible for any SNP and similar can be said for Plaid Cymru. So accepting that Labour isn’t going to defeat the SNP or Plaid Cymru. Labour needs to win 127 Tory seats which takes target seats up to the seat ranked 155.

Banbury is the constituency ranked 155 the seat was created in 1553 and has been held by the Tories since 1922 when they defeated the Liberals. Labour has never held the seat, and they never are going to, so how on earth is Labour going to win a general election?

The only hope of defeating the Tories, not the same as a Labour victory, might be The Progressive Alliance. In a subsequent post, I’ll look at the possibility of such an alliance working.

Blue = Conservative, Yellow = SNP, Green = Plaid Cmryu and Brown = Green Party

Rank Party Constituency Region Majority Swing

Needed
1 Bury North North West  105 0.11%
2 Kensington London 150 0.17%
3 Bury South North West 402 0.40%
4 Bolton North East North West 378 0.43%
5 High Peak East Midlands 590 0.54%
6 Gedling East Midlands 679 0.68%
7 Heywood and Middleton North West 663 0.70%
8 Blyth Valley North East 712 0.87%
9 Stoke-on-Trent Central West Midlands 670 1.04%
10 Chipping Barnet London 1,212 1.05%
11 Delyn Wales 865 1.13%
12 Durham North West North East 1,144 1.20%
13 Chingford and Woodford Green London 1,262 1.30%
14 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland 1,243 1.32%
15 Bridgend Wales 1,157 1.37%
16 Dewsbury Yorkshire and Humber 1,561 1.38%
17 Warrington South North West 2,010 1.62%
18 Clywd South Wales 1,239 1.71%
19 Burnley North West 1,352 1.73%
20 Birmingham Northfield West Midlands 1,640 1.90%
21 Wolverhampton South West West Midlands 1,661 2.02%
22 Leigh North West 1,965 2.09%
23 Keighley Yorkshire and the Humber 2,218 2.11%
24 West Bromwich East West Midlands 1,593 2.21%
25 Vale of Clwyd Wales 1,827 2.45%
26 Ynys Mon Wales 1,968 2.69%
27 Peterborough East of England 2,580 2.70%
28 Derby North East Midlands 2,540 2.70%
29 Stroud South West 3,840 2.91%
30 Wrexham Wales 2,131 3.18%
31 Aberconwy Wales 2,034 3.19%
32 Pudsey Yorkshire and the Humber 3,517 3.24%
33 Vale of Glamorgan Wales 3,562 3.25%
34 East Lothian Scotland 3,886 3.32%
35 Lincoln East Midlands 3,514 3.47%
36 Hyndburn North West 2,951  3.48%
37 Hastings and Rye South East 4,043 3.72%
38 Wakefield Yorkshire and Humber 3,358 3.73%
39 Glasgow North East Scotland 2,548 3.76%
40 Darlington North East 3,294 3.79%
41 Watford East of England 4,433 3.82%
42 Hendon London 4,230 3.84%
43 Wycombe South East 4,214 3.85%
44 Turo and Falmouth South West 4,561 3.85%
45 Don Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 3,630 3.99%
46 Reading West South East 4,117 4.08%
47 Colne Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 5,103 4.19%
48 Southport North West 4,147 4.30%
49 Redcar North East 3,527 4.32%
50 Southhampton Itchen South East 4,498 4.74%
51 Arfon Wales 2,781 4.78%
52 Stockton South North East 5,260 4.80%
53 Broxtowe East Midlands 5,331 4.82%
54 Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 5,230 4.86%
55 Calder Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 5,774 5.00%
56 Milton Keynes North South East 6,255 5.00%
57 Workington North West 4,176 5.02%
58 Norwich North East of England 4,738 5.12%
59 Filton and Bradley Stoke South West 5,646 5.25%
60 Milton Keynes South South East 6,944 5.42%
61 Sedgefield North East 4,513 5.43%
62 West Bromwich West West Midlands 3,799 5.51%
63 Ipswich East of England 5,479 5.53%
64 Altrincham and Sale West North West 6,139 5.61%
65 Blackpool South North West 3,690 5,63%
66 Northampton South East Midlands 4,697 5.75%
67 Bolsover East Midlands 5,299 5.77%
68 Shipley Yorkshire and Humber 6,242 5.78%
69 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland 5,624 5.83%
70 Midlothian Scotland 5,705 5.92%
71 Wolverhampton North East West Midlands 4,080 5.95%
72 Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 5,062 5.97%
73 Barrow and Furness North West 5,789 6.29%
74 Rushcliffe East Midlands 7,643 6.32%
75 Cities of London and Westminster London 5,425 6.35%
76 Rother Valley Yorkshire and Humber 6,318 6.49%
77 Swindon South South West 6,625 6.53%
78 Airdrie and Shotts Scotland 5,201 6.54%
79 Loughborough East Midlands 7,169 6.56%
80 Worcester West Midlands 6,758 6.64%
81 Glasgow South West Scotland 4,900 6.65%
82 Copeland North West 5,842 6.87%
83 Pendle North West 6,186 6.96%
84 Northampton North East Midlands 5,507 6.96%
85 Morecambe and Lunesdale North West 6,354 7.01%
86 Worthing East and Shoreham South East 7,474 7.03%
87 Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland 6,268 7.06%
88 Glasgow East Scotland 5,566 7.23%
89 Penistone and Stocksbridge Yorkshire and the Humber 7,210 7.28%
90 Ashfield East Midlands 7,260 7.41%
91 Uxbridge and Ruislip South London 7,210 7.48%
92 Glasgow North Scotland 5,601 7.74%
93 Stoke-on-Trent North West Midlands 6,286 7.83%
94 Crewe and Nantwich North West 8,508 7.87%
95 Glasgow Central Scotland 6,474 8.07%
96 Harrow East London 8,170 8.25%
97 Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands 7,446 8.32%
98 Crawley South East 8,360 8.38%
99 Clwyd West Wales 6,747 8.39%
100 Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) Scotland 2,438 8.42%
101 Corby East Midlands 10,268 8.49%
102 Scunthorpe Yorkshire and the Humber 6,451 8.54%
103 Camborne and Redruth South West 8,700 8.64%
104 Colchester East of England 9,423 8.83%
105 Bishop Auckland North East 7,962 8.89%
106 Bournemouth East South West 8,806 8.94%
107 Stevenage East of England 8,562 8.98%
108 Bolton West North West 8,855 8.98%
109 York Outer Yorkshire and the Humber 9,985 9.02%
110 Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 7,745 9.20%
111 Inverclyde Scotland 7,512 9.41%
112 Glasgow South Scotland 9,005 9.49%
113 Shrewsbury and Atcham West Midlands 11,217 9.50%
114 Gloucester  South West 10,277 9.56%
115 Carlisle North West 8,319 9.70%
116 Rossendale and Darwen North West 9,522 9.75%
117 Finchley and Golders Green London 10,815 9.81%
118 Monmouth Wales 9,982 9.94%
119 Macclesfield North West 10,711 9.94%
120 Dunfermline and Fife West Scotland 10,699 10.00%
121 Scarborough and Whitby Yorkshire and the Humber 10,270 10.33%
122 Croydon South London 12,339 10.39%
123 South Ribble North West 11,199 10.41%
124 Glasgow North West Scotland 8,359 10.52%
125 Welwyn Hatfield East of England 10,955 10.52%
126 Dunbartonshire West Scotland 9,553 10.68%
127 Edinburgh North and Leith Scotland 12,808 10.79%
128 Morley and Outwood Yorkshire and the Humber 11,267 10.85%
129 Erewash East Midlands 10,606 10.86%
130 Edinburgh East Scotland 10,417 10.89%
131 Thanet South South East 10,587 10.97%
132 Bournemouth West South West 10,150 11.04%
133 Blackpool North and Cleveleys North West 8,596 11.08%
134 Great Grimsby  Yorkshire and the Humber 7,331 11.08%
135 Ceredigion Wales 8,891 11.08%
136 Kingswood South West 11,220 11.38%
137 Hexham North East 10,549 11.43%
138 East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Scotland 13,322 11.82%
139 Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland 11,507 11.91%
140 Bromley and Chislehurst London 10,891 11.95%
141 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scotland 11,902 11.98%
142 Thurrock East of England 11,482 12.09%
143 Dover South East 12,278 12.11%
144 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East North East 11,626 12.16%
145 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scotland 10,679 12.39%
146 Livingston Scotland 13,702 12.55%
147 Telford West Midlands 10,941 12.77%
148 Basingstoke South East 14,198 12.97%
149 Linlithgow and Falkirk East Scotland 15,034 13.01%
150 Somerset North East South West 14,729 13.08%
151 Derbyshire North East East Midlands 12,876 13.08%
152 Rugby West Midlands 13,447 13.23%
153 Rochford and Southend East East of England 12,286 13.31%
154 Chelsea and Fulham London 12,473 13.32%
155 Banbury South East 16,813 13.36%
156 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 7,317 13.43%
157 Worthing West South East 14,823 13.56%
158 Wimbledon London 7,830 13.58%
159 Bassetlaw East Midlands 14,013 13.78%
160 Stafford West Midlands 14,377 14.05%
161 Beckenham London 14,258 14.10%
162 Somerset North South West 17,536 14.13%
163 Glenrothes Scotland 11,757 14.15%
164 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Scotland 12,976 14.20%
165 Hemel Hempstead East of England 14,563 14.20%
166 Stoke-on-Trent South West Midlands 11,271 14.23%
167 Halesowen and Rowley Regis West Midlands 12,074 14.26%
168 Aylesbury South East 17,373 14.34%
169 Nuneaton West Midlands 13,144 14.54%
170 Plymouth Moor View South West 12,897 14.58%
171 Swindon North South West 16,171 14.67%
172 Dundee West Scotland 12,259 14.74%
173 St Austell and Newquay South West 16,526 14.81%
174 Stourbridge West Midlands 13,571 14.85%
175 Burton West Midlands 14,496 14.87%
176 Elmet and Rothwell Yorkshire and the Humber 17,353 14.90%
177 Harborough East Midlands 17,278 15.07%
178 Bexleyheath and Crayford London 13,103 15.15%
179 Devon Central South West 17,721 15.26%
180 Sherwood East Midlands 16.186 15.35%
181 Weston-Super-Mare South West 17,121 15.39%
182 Forest of Dean South West 15,869 15.41%
183 Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner London 16,394 15.49%
184 Southend West East of England 14,459 15.53%
185 Derbyshire Mid East Midlands 15,385 15.59%
186 Dudley North West Midlands 11,533 15.72%
187 Wyre and Preston North North West 16,781 15.85%
188 Isle of Wight South East 23,737 15.94%
189 Kilmarnock and Loudoun Scotland 15,207 15.96%
190 Congleton North West 18,561 16.22%
191 Harlow East of England 14,063 16.22%
192 Woking South East 17,569 16.29%
193 Hertford and Stortford East of England 19,620 16.32%
194 Walsall North West Midlands 11,965 16.37%
195 Gravesham South East 15,581 16.38%
196 Huntingdon East of England 19,383 16.39%
197 Hertfordshire North East East of England 18,189 16.44%
198 Rochester and Strood South East 17,072 16.44%
199 Gillingham and Rainham South East 15,119 16.45%
200 Mansfield East Midlands 16,306 16.55%
201 Edinburgh South West Scotland 17,352 16.64%
202 Ribble Valley North West 18,439 16.68%
203 Dorset South South West 17,153 16.80%
204 Cambridgeshire South East East of England 21,695 16.85%
205 Kettering East Midlands 16,765 16.98%
206 Norfolk South East of England 21,275 17.02%
207 Runnymede and Weybridge South East 18,270 17.14%
208 Portsmouth North South East 15,780 17.19%
209 Brighton Pavillion South East 19,940 17.19%
210 Reigate South East 18,310 17.22%
211 Ayrshire North and Arran Scotland 16,674 17.31%
212 Derbyshire Dales East Midlands 17,381 17.38%
213 Eddisbury North West 18,443 17.41%
214 Aldershot South East 16,698 17.42%
215 Bedfordshire South West East of England 18,583 17.43%
216 Waveney East of England 18,002 17.60%
217 Suffolk Coastal East of England 20,533 17.61%
218 Berwick-upon-Tweed North East 14,835 17.61%
219 Sussex Mid South East 22,237 17.72%
220 Dartford South East 19,160 17.73%
221 Tatton North West 17,387 17.75%
222 Wantage South East 23,904 17.79%
223 Fylde North West 16,611 17.80%
224 Thanet North South East 17,189 17.84%
225 Selby and Ainsty Yorkshire and the Humber 20,137 17.85%
226 Wellingborough East Midlands 18,540 17.86%
227 Folkestone and Hythe South East 21,337 18.08%
228 Totnes South West 18,891 18.10%
229 Derbyshire South East Midlands 19,355 18.11%
230 Epsom and Ewell South East 21,593 18.16%
231 Redditch West Midlands 16,036 18.20%
232 Bracknell South East 19,829 18.24%
233 Sutton Coldfield West Midlands 19,272 18.42%
234 Hitchin and Harpenden East of England  17,760 18.46%
235 Amber Valley East Midlands 16,886 18.53%
236 Spelthorne South East 18,393 18.585
237 Bedfordshire North East East of England 24,283 18.67%
238 Staffordshire Moorlands West Midlands 16,428 18.82%
239 Hertfordshire South West East of England 23,099 18.87%
240 Newton Abbot South West 19,861 18.90%
241 Chelmsford East of England 21,639 18.94%
242 Romford London 17,893 18.94%
243 Poole South West 19,116 18.95%
244 Leicestershire North west East Midlands 20,400 18.95%
245 Bedfordshire Mid East of England 24,664 19.06%
246 Dwyfor Meironnydd Wales 10,449 19.08%
247 Beverley and Holderness Yorkshire and the Humber 20,448 19.10%
248 The Wrekin West Midlands 18,726 19.15%
249 Salisbury South West 20,605 19.17%
250 Sutton and Cheam London 18,035 19.18%

Source: Labour Target Seats

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Labour What’s Going Wrong?

Posted on 25 June 2021 by Madgett

So I have/had a feeling that the parliamentary Labour Party is stuffed full of far too many Oxbridge graduates so I decided to go through the shadow cabinet and work out their education, which basically meant searching Wikipedia for the answers. The whole thing took far too long to complete and I’m not sure it answered my question? Well, yes there are far too many graduates, perhaps not quite the question, but is that a problem? I’ve lost any interest trying to come up with any form of an answer, particularly as I could have gone to the House of Commons Library and looked at the Social background of Members of Parliament 1979-2019 and looked at the share of MPs educated in fee-paying schools, which shows:

Party Percentage of MPs Privately Educated
Conservative 41
Liberal Democrats 30
Labour 14
Scottish National Party 7

And looking at the full report shows that Labour certainly has too many graduates when all Universities are taken into account with Labour on 84% to the Tories 83%, but is it the problem as the Tories are stuffed full of graduates and doing very well.

Still here is my table just to remind me not to waste time completing something that is really not going to answer the question I asked. Which actually was Labour what’s going wrong?

MP Position Education
Keir Starmer Leader of the Opposition Bachelor of Laws, University of Leeds

Bachelor of Civil Law, St Edmund Hall, Oxford
Angela Rayner Deputy Leader, Shadow First Secretary of State, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work Left school at 16
Rachel Reeves Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Philosophy, Politics and Economics, New College, Oxford

MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics
Anneliesse Dodds Party Chair & Chair of Labour Policy Review Philosophy, Politics and Economics, St Hilda’s College, Oxford

Masters in Social Policy, University of Edinburgh

PhD in government, London School of Economics
Lisa Nandy, Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs Politics, Newcastle University

Masters in Public Policy, Birkbeck, University of London
Nick Thomas-Symonds Shadow Secretary of State for the Home Department Philosophy, Politics and Economics, St Edmund Hall, Oxford
David Lammy Shadow Secretary of State for Justice School of Law, School of Oriental and Africa Studies, University of London

Master of Laws, Harvard Law School, Harvard University
John Healey Shadow Secretary of Stater for Defence BA Social and Political Science, Christ’s College, Cambridge
Ed Miliband Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy BA Politics and Economics, Corpus Christi College, Oxford

MSc Economics, London School of Economics
Emily Thornberry Shadow Secretary of State for International Trade Law, University of Kent, Canterbury
Jonathan Reynolds Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Politics and Modern History, University of Manchester and BPP Law School
Jonathan Ashworth Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Politics and Philosophy, University of Durham
Kate Green Shadow Secretary of State for Education Bachelor of Laws, University of Edinburgh
Jo Stevens Shadow Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Law, Manchester University

Solicitors’ Professional Examination, Manchester Polytechnic
Bridget Phillipson Shadow Chief Secretary to HM Treasury Modern History, Hertford College, Oxford
Luke Pollard Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Politics, University of Exeter
Steve Reed Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government English, Sheffield University
Lucy Powell Shadow Secretary of State for Housing Chemistry, Somerville College, Oxford and Kings College, London
Thangam Debbonaire Shadow Leader of the House of Commons Mathematics, Oxford leaving before graduating

Cellist, Royal College of Music

St John’s City College of Technology, Manchester

MSc Management, Development and Social Responsibility, University of Bristol
Jim McMahon Shadow Secretary of State for Transport Left school at 16
Preet Kaur Gill Shadow Secretary of State for International Development BSc Sociology and Social Work, University of East London
Louise Haigh Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Government and Economics, London School of Economics but failed to complete course

Politics, University of Nottingham
Ian Murray Shadow Minister for Scotland BA Social Policy and Law, University of Edinburgh’s Academy of Government
Nia Griffith Shadow Minister for Wales Modern Languages, Somerville College, Oxford

Teacher Training, University of Wales, Bangor
Marsha de Cordova Shadow Women and Equalities Secretary Law and European Policy, London South Bank University
Andy McDonald Shadow Secretary of State for Employment Rights and Protections Law, Leeds Polytechnic 
Rosena Allin-Khan Shadow Minister for Mental Health Medical Biochemistry, Brunel University

Medicine, Lucy Cavendish College, Cambridge
Wes Streeting Shadow Secretary of State for Child Poverty History, Selwyn College, Cambridge
Cat Smith Shadow Minister for Young People and Democracy Sociology and Gender Studies, Cartmel College, Lancaster University
Lord Falconer Shadow Attorney General Law, Queens College, Cambridge
Lord McAvoy Opposition Chief Whip in the House of Lords Not saying
Alan Campbell Opposition Chief Whip BA Politics, Lancaster University

PGCE, University of Leeds

MA History, Newcastle Polytechnic
Baroness Angela Smith Shadow Leader of the House of Lords BA Public Administration, Leicester Polytechnic
Pat McFadden Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury BA Politics, University of Edinburgh
James Murray Shadow Financial Secretary to The Treasury BA First Class, PPE, Wadham College, Oxford
Abena Oppong-Asare Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Masters Politics with International Relations, University of Kent
Wayne David Shadow Minister for the Middle East and North Africa BA History, University College, Cardiff

Economic History, University College, Swansea

PGCE, University College, Cardiff
Stephen Doughty Shadow Minister for Africa (joint with Department for International Development() Lester B. Pearson United World College of the Pacific, Canada

Upper Second Class Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Corpus Christi College, Oxford

University of St. Andrews
Stephen Kinnock Shadow Minister for Asia and Pacific BA Modern Languages, Queens’ College, Cambridge

MA, College of Europe, Bruges
Catherine West Shadow Minister for Europe & Americas Modern Languages and Social Work, University of Sydney

Masters Chinese Studies, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Fabian Hamilton Shadow Minister for Peace and Disarmament BA Arts, University of York
Bambos Charalambous Shadow Minister for Crime Reduction and Courts Law, Liverpool Polytechnic
Sarah Jones Shadow Minister for Policing and the Fire Service History, Durham University
Holly Lynch Shadow Minister for Immigration Politics and History, Lancaster University
Conor McGinn Shadow Minister for Security Goldsmiths, University of London

History, Politics and Irish Studies, London Metropolitan University
Jess Phillips Shadow Minister for Domestic Violence and Safeguarding Economic and Social History and Social Policy, University of Leeds

Postgraduate Diploma in Public Sector Management, University of Birmingham
Paul Blomfield Shadow Minister for Brexit and EU Negotiations (Joint with International Trade) Certificate in Education, York St John University
Lyn Brown Shadow Minister for Prisons and Probation Whitelands College, (now part of Roehampton University)
Alex Cunningham Shadow Minister for Courts and Sentencing Certificate in Journalism, Darlington Technical College
Peter Kyle Shadow Minister for Victims and Youth Justice Doctorate in Community Development, University of Sussex
Karl Turner Shadow Minister for Legal Aid Law Degree, University of Hull
Sharon Hodgson Shadow Minister for Veterans Left school at 16
Stephen Morgan Shadow Minister for the Armed Forces Politics and Sociology, University of Bristol

Masters in Politics, Goldsmiths, London
Liz Kendall Shadow Minister for Social Care First History, Queens College, Cambridge 
Justin Madders Shadow Minister for Secondary Care, Workforce and Patient Health Law, University of Sheffield
Alex Norris Shadow Minister for Public Health and Patient Safety University of Nottingham
Chi Ownurah Shadow Minister for Science Research & Digital (Joint with Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport) Electrical Engineering, Imperial College London

MBA, Manchester Business School
Matthew Pennycook Shadow Minister for Climate Change First Class, History and International Relations, London School of Economics

Master of Philosophy, Balliol College, Oxford
Alan Whitehead Shadow Minister for Green New Deal and Energy Politics and Philosophy, University of Southampton
Jack Dromey Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office Possibly left school at 18.
Vicky Foxcroft Shadow Minister for Disability Drama and Business Studies, De Montfort University
Seema Malhotra Shadow Minister for Business and Consumers Politics and Philosophy, University of Warwick

Business Studies, Aston University
Bill Esterson Shadow Minister for International Trade Mathematics and Philosophy, University of Leeds
Gareth Thomas Shadow Minister for International Trade Economics, University College of Wales, Aberystwyth

PGCE, Thames Polytechnic

MA Imperial and Commonwealth Studies, King’s College London
Matt Western Shadow Minister for Further Education and Universities Geography, University of Bristol
Toby Perkins Shadow Minister for Apprenticeships & Life-Long Learning Not known, Possibly left school at 16 or 18.
Tulip Siddiq Shadow Minister for Children & Early Years English Literature, University College London

Masters, King’s College London
Alison McGovern Shadow Minister for Cultural Industries and Sport Philosophy, University College London
Rachael Maskell Shadow Minister for Voluntary Sector and Charities Physiotherapy, University of East Anglia
Chris Matheson Shadow Minister for Media Economics and Politics, London School of Economics
Alex Sobel Shadow Minister for Tourism & Heritage Information Systems, University of Leeds
Steph Peacock Shadow Minister for Veterans History, Queen Mary University of London

Masters, Institute of Education, University College London
Daniel Zeichner Shadow Minister for Food, Farming and Fisheries History, King’s College, Cambridge
Mike Amesbury Shadow Minister for Housing University of Central England
Naz Shah Shadow Minister for Community Cohesion Not known
Matt Rodda Shadow Minister for Pensions University of Sussex
Tan Dhesi Shadow Minister for Railways Mathematics with Management Studies, University College London

Applied Statistics, Keble College, Oxford

Master of Philosophy in the History and politics of South Asia, Fitzwillian College, Cambridge
Mike Kane Shadow Minister for Aviation and Maritime Social Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University

PGCE, Manchester Metropolitan University
Kerry McCarthy Shadow Minister for Green Transport Russian Studies, University of Liverpool

Law, City of London Polytechnic
Anna McMorrin Shadow Minister for Victims and Youth Justice French and Politics, University of Southampton

Journalism, Cardiff University
Yasmin Qureshi Shadow Minister for International Development  Law, London South Bank University 

Master of Laws, University College London
Gerald Jones Shadow Minister for Wales Not Known, Probably left school at 16
Chris Elmore Shadow Minister for Scotland History and Culture, Cardiff Metropolitan University
Imran Hussain Shadow Minister for Employment Rights and Protections Unknown, probably left school at 16
Afzal Khan Shadow Deputy Leader of the Commons Left school at 16 or 18
Ellie Reeves Shadow Solicitor General Law, St Catherine’s College, Oxford
Mark Tami Opposition Pairing Whip History, University of Wales, Swansea
Jessica Morden Shadow Vice Chamberlain of HM Household Whip History, University of Birmingham
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Guilt

Posted on 6 June 2021 by Madgett

There’s a lot of guilt with cancer, guilty I got cancer, guilty I didn’t take care of myself so I don’t get cancer, guilty I can’t do the things I used to, guilty I feel sick, guilty I feel so dizzy I almost blacked out, guilty I am cramped in so much pain I can hardly move, guilty I don’t tell people how ill I am, guilty I’m covering up, guilty I’m making my self iller by covering up, yes there’s a lot of guilt.

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What Trajectory is This Country Is On?

Posted on 16 May 2021 by Madgett

I’ve ripped this straight from George Monbiot’s Twitter Feed hopefully he won’t mind.

When I ask myself what trajectory this country is on, the most likely answer seems to be Orbán’s Hungary. How much in this thread sounds familiar?

  1. The ruling class, wallowing in corruption, enjoys total impunity. Meanwhile, peaceful protest and other freedoms are criminalised.
  2. No political scandal is a sacking offence.
  3. A complicit media so distorts the reporting of government action that it becomes almost impossible to distinguish truth from lies.
  4. Apparently, the endless rule is sustained by voter suppression and gerrymandering.
  5. Politics proceeds by means of the grand gesture. Billions are spent on major infrastructure, while basic services are allowed to wither and die.
  6. Public agencies are repurposed to direct money into the hands of chums.
  7. People trying to defend minority rights and liberal values are bated and provoked, as the government seeks new enemies and revels in its illiberalism.
  8. Policies that would once have made you gasp are normalised, as the frontier of acceptable outrage is constantly extended.
  9. Immigrants are demonised and blamed for problems for which they bear no responsibility, even as their numbers fall.
  10. The government inventively discovers endless scapegoats for its own failures.
  11. Patriotism and flag-waving are used to advance an agenda that destroys the very fabric of public life and the meaning of the nation-state as a shared polity belonging to all its citizens. The worse the state of the nation, the more national greatness is invoked.

Any of this ring a bell?

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Financial Information

Posted on 7 May 2021 by Madgett

It seems absolutely impossible to find out the details of a company for a couple of days I’ve been trying to find out how much profit Crowdfunder UK might make I’ve had absolutely no success. My interest is in how much money they might be making from the desperate, those trying to raise funds for their medical treatment that’s not met by the NHS.

I’ve looked at Companies House although there’s no guarantee of the information as their website states “Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed”.  So it could all be a pack of lies.

The information I was able to obtain is little more than the basics which rather draws a line under what profits are being made.

I’d be interested if you know of any sources I should consult

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Constipation

Posted on 27 April 2021 by Madgett

One thing, hell there are many things we don’t want to talk about, but still, constipation is one of them. But constipation at least for me is something I’m constantly trying to keep at bay, and I’ve been pretty successful once I had that stent fitted two years ago.

Now with a change in chemotherapy things have all gone wrong no I’m going to resist talking about this but that’s the problem we all don’t want to talk about constipation I’m going round in circles here.

So, let’s start again I was constipated for seven days and only overcome the problem with a combination of drugs, four Senokot tablets morning and night, two dioctyl tablets three times a day and two Laxido sachets three times a day a pretty potent combination. Unsurprisingly this took me the other way, so I had to stop those drugs.

After a further five days of, let’s call it the squirts, with advice from palliative care I’m now on a regime of four Senokot tablets three times a day and am pretty much back to where I started as all those laxatives did not actually solve the problem, they did nothing more than allow my shit to bypass the blockage. So, unless things improve in another three days, I’m going to have to try something different.

The tip I have from my experience is out of the three options you might have if your healthcare is organised into oncology, chemotherapy helpline and palliative care is call palliative care they’ll be the most useful, I tried the other two first and their advice was nowhere near as.

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